Numerator data reveals spending pullback

According to the latest figures from Numerator, 68.5% of consumers say they plan to cut back on spending if U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are imposed.

The insight firm’s recent survey of 600 respondents reveals that despite elevated concerns, most Canadian consumers have maintained their usual shopping habits, with 77.3% not altering their purchasing behaviour since the U.S. Presidential Election on Nov. 5 in anticipation of tariffs.

However, the remaining 17.9% who have changed their behaviour are making more strategic decisions about their spending.

Among those who have changed their behaviour, cutting back on non-essential purchases is the most common action (52.7%). Other common responses include purchasing cheaper essential goods (47.3%) and budgeting expenses (45.5%). In addition, 25.9% of these consumers have chosen to stock up on products they expect to be impacted by tariffs, while 18.8% have bought products earlier than they otherwise would have.

The overwhelming majority of Canadian consumers (71.4%) are worried about the possibility of the United States imposing tariffs on Canadian goods.

That concern level varies by economic groups. Affluent consumers, with the highest purchasing power, are the most concerned; roughly 75% expressed anxiety over potential U.S. tariffs. And consumers with the lowest purchasing power are slightly less concerned, though a majority (65.5%) are worried.

Middle purchasing power consumers are the most likely to plan to cut back on spending (71%), followed by high purchasing power consumers (67.6%) and low purchasing power consumers (67%).

Consumers with lower purchasing power are most likely to have cut back on non-essential purchases (48.2%) and purchased cheaper essential goods (48.2%). Middle-income consumers, in particular, tend to focus on cutting back on non-essential purchases (67.6%) and budgeting expenses (55.9%).

Meanwhile, 57.7% of respondents express some level of concern about Canada imposing tariffs on products from the U.S., though the level of concern is lower than concern over U.S.-imposed tariffs.

Among these consumers, about 26% are very concerned, and around 32% are somewhat concerned. Just 13% of consumers are unconcerned.

Restaurants Canada data reveals tepid 2025 growth

Numerator data reveals that if Trump’s tariffs are imposed, the areas most likely to see reduced spending include travel (49%) and bars and restaurants (49%), which has industry groups concerned.

According to Restaurant Canada’s latest quarterly report, unveiled this month, after being adjusted for menu inflation, real sales are forecast to grow by only 0.8% this year. November menu prices, meanwhile, were 3.4% higher last year compared to November 2023.

Kelly Higginson, president and CEO at Restaurants Canada, said 2024 was a difficult year and 2025 could prove a challenge as well. Higginson adds that restaurants face “significant threats, including drastic cuts to immigration amid a very tight labour market in much of the country outside of urban centres, a tariff dispute with the U.S. and continued low consumer confidence.”

More than a third of Canadians (36%) are going out to eat less frequently. Gen X report the largest reduction in visits to full-service restaurants (41%), while Gen Z is most likely to cut back on quick-service restaurants (42%).