1. Media owner balance sheet woes: In 2002, debt-burdened media owners have reduced investment in audience research and delayed the launch of a newly licensed TV channel in Toronto. Looking ahead, the need for media owners to improve margin by increasing yield (higher prices) and decreasing costs (content and service) will accelerate the friction between sellers and buyers.

2. Convergence is no longer a noun: The industry has come to realize that convergence is not an object to be sold. Rather, it is a verb describing the process of combining multiple media platforms (perhaps owned by the same company) to increase communication effectiveness and efficiency for advertisers.

3. Buoyant media spending: Despite economic uncertainty, media spending was surprisingly buoyant in 2002, powered by retail, automotive and packaged goods. Total media spending will likely increase between 5% and 7% for 2003.

4. TV measurement mayhem: Does it make any sense in a country the size of Canada that we should have two competing TV meter services? Would the measurement investment not be better spent on more robust sampling in a compatible manner that would allow for more detailed analysis?

5. Online rises from the ashes: The use of online is now growing at a rate two to three times greater than the market. The growth of integrated content, text links and advanced search engine techniques, coupled with real-time success measurement, have put the medium back on track.

6. Automate or die: Increasing media fragmentation requires more transactions to achieve the same results thereby driving up costs. Systems that automate the transactions between sellers and buyers such as AD2 Media are just taking hold. These systems will be essential for survival in the very near future.

7. Newspaper war is downgraded to a skirmish: Despite the newspapers’ coverage of circulation and readership, the more interesting story is declining consumer interest in newspapers as fewer Canadians claim to have read a newspaper yesterday and spend fewer minutes reading. Perhaps more newsworthy is that Toronto transit freebie Metro is now the fourth largest newspaper in Canada.

8. Increasing consumer barriers: Deluged with messages, consumers are pushing back or avoiding ads, requiring more innovative media solutions that go beyond traditional ‘push’ strategies. The ability to develop and execute communication solutions that efficiently add impact is the new battleground between media agencies.

9. Demand for accountability: For a relatively modest investment in online, advertisers can receive detailed results reporting in real time. Improving the tracking and results analysis of traditional media is increasingly the demand of advertisers. Measurement in all forms will continue to grow dramatically in 2003.

10. Media is a critical marketing differentiator: As access to target consumers becomes more difficult due to fragmentation or barriers imposed by the individual, the means of message delivery grows in importance. Advertisers are realizing that superior media/communications planning and execution is of critical importance.

Doug Checkeris is managing partner at The Media Company in Toronto.