To mark the advent of a new year, this issue’s meter looks at activity for the next 12 months – and all told, it looks like a year of relatively flat spending that could put some pressure on local markets. In particular, retailers say sales aren’t expected to rise much, so budgets won’t grow to meet media rate increases of 2% to 5%. This probably won’t have much effect on the must-buy top six markets, but it might strain the middle tier. In other words, national radio and TV are expected to remain strong, but local market radio and newspaper could feel the pinch.
Conventional broadcast TV
5 out of 5
Sales are higher versus year ago by at least 5% to 10%. Fall 2002 was very hot, followed by an active winter/spring 2003. Buyers expect summer 2003 will be strong as well, and broadcasters appear to be gearing up with a number of new properties. A tremendous amount of business has been written for the first three to five months in the top markets already, with some shows sold out into April.
Specialty TV
4 out of 5
Viewing continues to build at the expense of conventional and the share of budget allocated to specialty is growing accordingly. Buyers say specialty leads the way in willingness to work with clients on customized programs, while continuing to offer significant pricing advantages. In the Quebec market, Astral had a great fall 2002, but spring 2003 is looking slow. Toronto buyers were faster off the mark and began booking up the best shows last month. Trends to watch include more spending on women’s networks, decreased viewing of information channels post-9/11, while music and sports channels remain strong.
Digital TV
1 out of 5
A disappointing performance throughout 2002 leaves audiences well below projections. The pricing is low, but buyers are still not comfortable allocating any meaningful share to the digitals. Improvement is not expected unless action is taken by the industry to significantly increase digital penetration and decrease costs to the consumer. The watch is on to see how many channels will close up shop, since $10 spots cannot sustain the industry for long.
Radio
3 out of 5
Radio was hot leading into Christmas 2002, reflecting its strong performance as a retail medium. But buyers warn that stations outside the top markets may feel a cutback in retail spending and should look at new categories and increased business from existing advertisers for growth. Sales for the first quarter of 2003 were soft heading into the new year. In the Toronto market, inventory for early 2003 is tighter than it was a year earlier during the period immediately following 9/11.
Newspaper
3 out of 5
Projected newspaper rate increases for 2003 vary from 5% or 6%, up to about 8% (at the Globe and Mail). With inflation at 2%, buyers feel the increases aren’t justified and retail clients may balk. Owners say 2002 was a challenging but good year. The market is improving slowly and they say the first quarter of 2003 looks positive. The financial services sector is still lagging and recruitment is lower, but other areas have picked up, including housing, auto, furniture, telco, travel, retail and computers.
Magazine
3 out of 5
Buyers say magazines had a good 2002 and are hoping that will continue into 2003. Spending for the coming 12 months is predicted to be about the same as last year. A strong commitment from cosmetics, décor and home improvement is expected. While some clients are redirecting spending to other marketing efforts, new clients such as Green Giant and Kodak are filling the void.
Out-of-Home
2.5 out of 5
Lots of outdoor seemed to be available in 2002 and indications are the same for 2003. Buyers expect quite a bit of cutthroat wheeling and dealing for first quarter in particular.
Market Meter ratings are determined by a national survey of both buyers and sellers in each medium.
