With the federal government’s announcement last month that it has come through with a $150-million crutch for the Canadian magazine industry, observers are wondering when the onslaught of competition from American publishers will arrive – if ever.

The Canadian Magazine Fund will dole out its cash over a three-year period, beginning next fiscal year. Canadian-owned and -controlled magazines with at least 80% editorial content will be eligible to dip into the pot to pay for editorial content, professional development, new technology, marketing and distribution.

The introduction of the fund was prompted by Chicken Little-type predictions from Canada’s magazine publishers with the passing last summer of Bill C-55, the Foreign Publishers Advertising Services Act. At the time, Canadian Heritage Minister Sheila Copps promised subsidies to help counteract the loss of ad revenue to U.S. magazines.

To date, however, there is little evidence that the passing of Bill C-55 has had any negative effect on advertising revenues within the Canadian magazine industry.

U.S. magazine publishers have not stormed our border in a race for ad dollars, made any partnership deals with Canadian publishers or scooped up the 49% of Telemedia that’s on the table.

Any financial woes that Canadian publishers may be suffering are not as a result of C-55, says Ron Lund, president of the Association of Canadian Advertisers, which supported the changes that were eventually made to Bill C-55 last June.

‘We never believed there were hordes waiting at the border,’ says Lund.

Since C-55 passed into law last June, New York-based publishing giant Time-Warner has announced its intention to sell ads for Canadian regional editions of Sports Illustrated and People magazines and there have been rumours that Hearst Corp. is going to set up a Canadian operation to publish Cosmopolitan.

Beyond that, such major Canadian publishering entities as Rogers and Telemedia have confirmed that they are looking for U.S. partners with which to strike content deals, but no agreements have been signed.

Media buyers, meanwhile, are dubious about whether there will be many takers for the space available in split-run U.S. magazines.

Janet Callaghan, vice-president, corporate media director with MBS/The Media Company, wonders why anyone would be willing to pay $29,000 for a full-colour ad in Sports Illustrated or People and not be able to determine the ad’s position.

‘The (U.S. publishers) could just be floating this straw dog to see if there’s anything out there,’ she says. ‘They haven’t set up a big party, made announcements or done a lot of advertising, the way you would if you were really serious.’

Many industry observers don’t really expect U.S. publishers to establish separate operations in Canada – a market that for them is the size of California – but they do foresee split-runs and partnerships with Canadian publishers.

‘If a competitive product comes into this marketplace, competitively priced with good Canadian measurement, then it could have an impact,’ says Callaghan. ‘But I think before you see that…you’ll see more joint ventures to maximize the local and national markets and equalize the cost.’