With the Canadian fall spend at hand, broadcasters are lighting candles and praying that they’ll see just some of the manna that fell from heaven during the U.S. upfront.

While last year’s U.S. spend showed a healthy jump to US$8.2 billion, early numbers peg the 2003 market at between $9.2 and $9.5 billion – and that 12% increase made for a very hot U.S. market. More notable for the broadcasters perhaps, it has been reported that some top-rated shows netted CPM increases as high as 25%.

And what does this mean to Canada? Well… perhaps not all that much.

Although broadcasters here are hoping fall fever will sweep north with West Nile, buyers, in particular, just don’t see it happening.

‘I think Canadian broadcasters absolutely love to piggyback on the U.S. frenzy for obvious reasons,’ observes Theresa Treutler, Toronto-based SVP broadcast investment director at Toronto’s Starcom Worldwide. ‘But whether it pans out or not is not so certain, and I think there’s an element of fabricated demand here. Unlike the States, where vast pots of money show up somehow, I just don’t see that happening in Canada.’

Less ravaged by the dot.com bust and recent world events, Canada has enjoyed a more stable if not healthy economy in the last 18 months – which means no double-digit recovery, as the U.S. is experiencing. Most buyers peg the overall market as flat, with growth potential in the low single digits, while broadcasters assert it will at least be in the mid to high single digits (with total ad spend still in the $2.5 billion range).

When it comes to CPM hike predictions, both buyers and sellers forecast increases running between 3% and 8% on the conventionals (see ‘The regions hold’ on page 16 for a regional breakdown).

With fall being the most important buy of the year, it’s likely things will start with a bang as buyers try to get prime inventory before it disappears and CPMs inflate.

‘There would appear to be lots of people lined up and ready to go at the gate,’ notes Doug Checkeris, managing partner at The Media Company. ‘We think this fall is going to be robust because there’s been a decent third quarter. But it’s the same issue – those programs that might have done 14s now do 12s. You need more of them to get the same number of ratings each week. You have got to look at that carefully, because there is something sinister inside it.’

Checkeris adds that the irony is, with ratings dropping every year, buyers have to spend more to get the same audience, creating an inflation that sees advertisers rewarding poorer ratings performances with higher CPMs.

CTV wins the year that was

Looking back over the year that was, CTV is the clear winner when it came to ratings gains, a victory that Global has tacitly acknowledged by going on a mad shopping spree for new shows.

In the 18 to 34 demo, CTV has followed one good year with another, with average primetime ratings up 16% (from 2.5 to 2.9, according to Nielsen Media Research, see charts below). Much of that movement has come at the expense of demo leader Global (which dropped 18% from 3.8 to 3.1), as well as the CBC (down from 2.2 to 1.4, or 36%).

CTV was also gangbusters in the 18 to 49 demo this year. Although it tied Global in 2002 with a 3.5 average primetime audience, CTV has since stormed ahead on the strength of top-20 performers American Idol 2 (which made it to the podium twice with average ratings of 11.5 and 9.8, see charts on page 10), Amazing Race (9.4), newcomer CSI Miami (8.5), Third Watch (6.9) and The Osbournes (6.8). Hardly missed was the late Ally McBeal, which broke into the top 20 list last year with a 6.6 rating.

Ratings-wise, Global slipped only slightly in the 18 to 49 bracket this year (to a primetime average of 3.3), but several of its top performers dropped out of the top 20: X-Files (a defunct 7.1 ratings performer last year), Frasier (7.0) and Everybody Loves Raymond (6.6). Global held onto the top two rankings in the demo thanks to two Survivor incarnations, although each lost a single ratings point. Beyond the CBC, which pined for a lost top-20 hockey performer and 31% of its primetime share (from 2.9 to 2.0), the other stations mostly maintained their positions, with CH improving ratings slightly.

In the stodgy yet important adults 25 to 54 demo, CTV continued to out-pace Global, moving from a 4.0 primetime average to 4.6 and doubling the number of top-20 shows in its inventory. Replace The Osbournes in the list above with Law & Order: Criminal Intent, and you get the idea. While Global’s primetime average stayed constant at 3.5, last year’s top-20 performers Malcolm in the Middle (8.8 average audience), Raymond and X-Files slipped off the chart this year. Global managed to maintain its place because its strongest performers (Survivor, Friends) found even bigger audiences. For its part, the CBC dropped a full point in primetime (from a 3.3 to a 2.3) for 25 to 54s.

A ‘lackluster’ new show crop

With a schedule in need of shoring up, CanWest headed to L.A. Screenings to spend a wad of increasingly valuable Canadian bucks, announcing a few weeks ago that it’s picking up over a dozen new shows for the main net and CH.

But given the fact that only about three shows out of 20 ever make it, it isn’t surprising buyers aren’t usually enthused by the fare they’re served, and this year was no exception. ‘I have to say that this is one of the more lackluster upfronts,’ observes Toronto-based OMD managing director Sherry O’Neil. ‘Nothing really knocked our socks off, like when we saw 24.’

Comedies and cop shows characterize the season’s offerings, with the occasional nostalgic supernatural/superhero romp thrown in for good measure. (‘I guess everyone is looking for the next Angel,’ notes The Media Company’s Checkeris on the slew of quirky fantasy shows. ‘We’ve got all these crazy teenagers and everybody talking to God.’)

On the reality front, network programmers are starting to be more selective about what they slot in, at least for now. But at US$1.6 million an episode, there is something about Raymond – he ain’t cheap. So reality will still play an important but restrained role in schedules.

Notes Checkeris: ‘All the networks are saying: ‘No. No. No. We’re going with scripted programming.’ I think part of the problem is that they got so obtuse with their concepts that they ultimately had some advertiser backlash in terms of them saying: ‘We don’t want to be associated with that program.” (Monica Lewinsky, we’re looking at you.) Unanimously, buyers believe reality will appear en masse later in the season to replace programs that don’t find their legs.

So what are the nets doing this year to win over advertisers and eyeballs?

Global/CH: More than a dozen new shows

‘CanWest dominated the top 10 until this past season,’ observes OMD’s O’Neil, ‘so I would assume that its ambition is to regain some of that. But I don’t think anyone will ever dominate it to that degree again.’

That doesn’t mean the net isn’t going to try. With Friends in its last year, and buyers dubbing Frasier, Raymond and Will & Grace as ‘tired,’ Global has its work cut out for it in both the near and long term. Summarizes Treutler: ‘CanWest has to address viewers. ‘If you build it they will come.’ That’s exactly what we’re talking about here.’

The Global strategy will be to anchor every night with an established franchise, counter-programming with CH to cover off demos. With the U.S. simulcast of Boston Public moving to Fridays, Global will shift top-20 ratings darling Fear Factor (7.6 for 18 to 34s) from CH as an anchor lead-in to Raymond on Monday nights. At 9:30, Global plugs in the only new show most buyers agreed might be a winner – Two and a Half Men, starring Charlie Sheen.

Tuesdays see the addition of buyer-unfriendly John Larroquette vehicle Happy Family as a lead-in to 24, which spent two seasons being weaned on CH and which, according to CanWest Media Sales VP of integrated media research, Kathy Gardner, increased its ratings in Toronto by about 50% last season. Wednesdays welcome the new David E. Kelley drama Brotherhood of Poland N.H., which Gardner says is more Picket Fences than The Practice. For her part, Treutler says she also sees the potential in the show: ‘There are some fine actors in there with some really good pedigrees, so it depends how they treat it.’

The U.S. version of pseudo-Friends Brit-com Coupling will make its debut on Thursday nights at 9:30. Gardner sees it as similar to the ratings blockbuster, but with ‘more sex and more sizzle’ and ‘more irreverent.’ To set up the night, Friends will slip into the 7:30 slot before Survivor. (The winter version of the reality series features a much-anticipated all-star cast of returning contestants.) On Fridays, look for Alicia Silverstone to kick things off with Miss Match, leading into Boston Public. Sunday nights will see Global put its weight behind Rob Lowe’s Lyon’s Den, an offering which Gardner sees as one of the ‘crown jewels’ of the new dramas.

CH has new programming every night of the week, beginning with Las Vegas (about a surveillance company on the strip) on Mondays at 9 p.m. Other highlights include NCIS (Naval CIS – a little ‘derivative’ quipped one buyer) on Tuesdays, a new series of Extreme Makeover and two solid performers with 25 to 54 appeal: Dateline and 20/20. Sundays will heat up with Skin at 9 p.m. where Romeo and Juliet gets its own makeover for the kids of a porn king and a district attorney.

‘This is the year that we’ve really been able to build on our strengths,’ notes Gardner. ‘We believe we have really enriched our schedule so that we’ll continue to draw more viewers to Global and CH as a combination. We’ve been able to marry them in a way we haven’t been able to in the past year.’

Helping that union along will be a marketing effort on Global, CH, in print and on canada.com that will emphasize the backbone of the schedule. ‘What we will do first and foremost is promote our top five established shows,’ says Gardner. ‘That list will be determined as we go through the summer… Priorities change week to week, so we can say ‘for the rest of the fall, we do it in this order.’ It’s like the television schedule, it evolves and grows and gets manipulated to maximize the numbers.’

CTV: Summer repeats no more

CTV certainly found ways to maximize its numbers this season. Starcom’s Treutler notes that if you look at ratings as a whole across all the important demos, CTV won the year. And, she adds, ‘they’ve moved a lot more of their viewership. Their profile has actually changed. They’ve built their viewer base in the younger end of adults 18 to 34 and adults 18 to 49.’

Given such an evolution, it’s hardly surprising CTV did the least amount of shopping this year. As a matter of fact, notes OMD’s O’Neil, ‘The biggest problem for CTV is that they have more programming than they have hours, so they have to take things out of simulcast – that’s always a challenge.’

With such an embarrassment of riches, one might expect CTV execs to be found with feet on desks, smoking stogies. Not exactly.

‘I think the one thing we’re paying particular attention to is keeping the schedule fresh 52 weeks of the year,’ observes CTV SVP sales and marketing Rita Fabian on what seems to some to be an over-stuffed war chest. ‘The days of running repeats all summer and getting into those summer doldrums just doesn’t work anymore. You have to keep the momentum going and keep looking for the next big thing. Viewers have a lot more options now than they’ve had in the past. If we don’t keep it interesting, there are lots of other places to go and it’s hard to get them back.’

Helping to keep things fresh this fall will be Whoopi Goldberg (starring as an opinionated ex-Diva hotelier in Whoopi), who checks in Mondays as a lead-in to Third Watch, which will run out of simulcast. The sophomore season of CSI: Miami will slot in at 10 p.m. to synch with CBS. Tuesdays feature American Idol at 8 p.m. – with American Juniors following Canadian Idol out of the summer and into the fall slot. The third adult incarnation of the U.S. hit earns the spot from January on.

Skipping ahead to Fridays, look for Joan of Arcadia (young girl talks to God) to run into Charmed, turning the early evening into bait for the 18 to 34 set. Saturday nights kick off at 7 p.m. with a new time and place for W-Five as lead-in to Sue Thomas. The night continues with Comedy Now and the new Comedy Inc. before plunging into the anarchy of back-to-back Osbournes. Sundays see the

addition of Jerry Bruckheimer’s Cold Case in simulcast before ratings heavyweight Law & Order: Criminal Intent at 9. After that, add medical drama Nip/Tuck (sharing a slot with Cold Squad, the second season of The Eleventh Hour, and The Sopranos) and the week’s complete.

‘I think the real watercooler breakthrough show is going to be Nip/Tuck,’ predicts Fabian. ‘There is nothing else like it on TV. We also liked Cold Case a lot. It’s really a very well crafted show and I think in its time period it certainly has top-10 potential.’

CHUM: NewNet build continues

Last year, recalls VP of programming Ellen Baine, CHUM went south in a buying mood, picking up a number of one-hour dramas. ‘This year we’re continuing that strategy. We’re looking for shows that we think will appeal to local audiences. We’re not really competing with CTV and CanWest and buying huge network shows. We try to look for the alternative. We’re looking at shows that we think we can build into a hit.’

CHUM picked up Fearless from the WB this year, and regained its claim to both Everwood (which ran on CTV in 2002) and Seventh Heaven, a move which should add extra weight and stability to the NewNets’ line-up, notes Baine. Also joining the Nets (The New VR, The New VI, etc.) are Jake 2.0 (computer geek turned superhero), 10-8 (Baine calls it a ‘dramedy’ in the Training Day vein) and Tracker. While Baine says to expect the NewNets to go ‘for stuff that is a little younger-minded, a little bit edgier,’ the older crowd will probably welcome the addition of ABC news magazine Primetime on Mondays and Thursdays.

By contrast, Citytv (Toronto and Vancouver) will experience few major changes in the coming year. Both Joe Millionaire and The Bachelor will return, and viewers can look forward to a four-hour mini-series revolving around Trista’s (The Bachelorette) upcoming wedding.

With most buyers saying they’d like to see CHUM realize its two-outlet aspirations in Alberta – both because of the added ratings points and because they would offer alternative to the networks – Blaine says CHUM’s biggest strength is its independence from U.S. simulcasts, which allows it to find the audience for shows.

‘Every year we do a little better,’ she says. ‘And as we gain strength we can afford to pay a little more and that works in our favor… We think it’s a better strategy to find shows we think we can make big hits out of. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. But if we can be more like the WB and less like ABC, then that probably works better for us.’

CBC: Five seasons in one

While the CBC can still claim Saturday nights as hockey night – although with U.S. nets looking to repatriate Saturday night viewers, even that might change in time – there were few other silver linings in last year’s schedule. Notes Starcom’s Treutler, ‘if you look at the top-50 ranked programs, and that’s pretty deep, they have roughly half the programs they had [the year before].’

According to Slawko Klymkiw, CBC executive director of network programming, English television, the pubcaster took it in the teeth from several sources. The launch of the digitals and the drop of off-air tuning (i.e. rabbit ears) from 12% at the beginning of the year to under 7% by the end certainly hurt, but what really stung was that birthday party.

‘We had a good fall in the sense that we celebrated our [50th] birthday,’ explains Klymkiw. ‘We went across the country and did a lot of good outreach, but we did a month of programming that didn’t catch on with viewers. Some things did better than others, but overall it didn’t create a lot of schedule momentum.’

And then add CTF and Telefilm funding changes. Says Klymkiw, ‘Our focus continues to be must-see programming, and to do that you have to produce five or six major events on a regular basis. Because of the way the funding works, we had very few of those last year.’

What the CBC needed, he says, was a change of perspective. Traditionally considering itself as the top of the pyramid, it now has to see itself as ‘central to the broadcast system. And that really means cooperative, collaborative and complimentary.’

This year, the pubcaster will take a different approach. Rather than going head-to-head with other fall releases, look for five distinct mini-seasons to play out over the year.

Running from September to the Grey Cup in October, look for programming stunts like Trudeau II (the prequel) and Shattered City: The Halifax Explosion, as well as a new Cirque du Soleil variety series. From the Grey Cup until the holiday season, the CBC’s comedies and dramas return, each launching with a one-hour opener. That leads into the pubcaster’s holiday season, and then into a January season that will see the launch of new shows against the competition’s reruns. Efforts include: The Rick Mercer Show and Bernie Zukerman’s Wonderland (pending funding approval). Lastly, the fifth season will be the traditionally strong hockey play-offs.

‘We’re tying to build a schedule in which programs build momentum for each other,’ says Klymkiw, ‘and this schedule gains momentum over the course of the five seasons.’

From a buyer’s standpoint, Checkeris thinks the five-season idea is a smart move: ‘If you’re dealing with what they’re dealing with, it’s sensible. They’re trying to maximize what they can get out of the schedule rather than do it the traditional way which is to throw theirs up against everyone else’s.’

For more Fall TV Preview stories, go to: http://www.strategymag.com/articles/media/20030616/