So what are the new season’s big winners and losers to date? Who will fill Seinfeld’s running shoes? And just why is a Frasier rerun beating out Veronica’s Closet on Thursday nights? For the answers to these and other questions, we turned to some knowledgeable broadcast planners and buyers.



Penny Kane

Broadcast Manager

Palmer Jarvis DDB



Personally, I can’t think of any major disappointments. But there aren’t a lot of strong shows, numbers-wise. It’s a very middle-of-the-road season.

Veronica’s Closet, I think, is a good show, and wic must be happy to have that one on their Thursday night schedule. Dharma & Greg isn’t something I tune in to very often, but it had a good fall in a good time period (8:30 Wednesdays). It’s well-written and appeals to the same kind of target as Mad About You.

Union Square is one that a lot of people probably had among their top picks, mainly because of its time period. (The show is nbc’s lead-in to Seinfeld). It’s still on the air, but I don’t know if that’s for any good reason – it’s certainly not for the quality of writing.

One show that wasn’t on my list last June, but that probably deserved honorable mention is Ally McBeal. We loved the pilot, but nobody in Canada had picked it up at the time. Now, Baton/ctv is carrying it on Mondays in simulcast (with Fox), and I think that’s great news. ctv needed some younger programming, and the combination of Melrose Place followed by Ally McBeal fills that need nicely. I think the show’s going to do some decent numbers against women 18-34.

Ally’s well-written and has a great ensemble cast, just like Veronica’s Closet. And I think that’s what makes a show nowadays: a good, solid ensemble. It’s not just the lead who carries a show, it’s the whole cast. Nobody tunes in just to see Jerry Seinfeld.

I wasn’t too surprised when I heard about Seinfeld’s departure. In fact, I think it’s smart for the show to go out on a relative high note. True, it hasn’t been that great the last couple of seasons, but nobody hates him yet, and he still draws the viewers. I gather the season finale’s going to be an hour and a half – which is half an hour too long, if you ask me – and I can’t even imagine what that’s going to cost. It’ll be a huge event.

I know Global’s going to miss that show – it has been their flagship. When they lost half of the nbc Thursday night lineup this season, with Veronica’s Closet and Union Square going to wic, I think it hurt them. Now, to put a big question mark at 9 p.m. on Thursday, that’s going to be really rough for them.

With wic and Baton/ctv coming on much stronger now, Global has a bigger fight on its hands when it comes to buying programming. They’re feeling competition they haven’t had in about five years. Frankly, I don’t envy them.

For buyers, all of this makes our lives a little more pleasant. When you’re buying programming, it’s better to have the good and the bad spread out a bit, rather than having one broadcaster with all the good.

I think the u.s. networks are going to be looking at a tough situation down the road, because there are a lot of older shows on the air now – Mad About You, Frasier and so on – that are probably going to have to be replaced soon. And I don’t know that there’s anything in the existing crop of new shows capable of doing that. Those are big shoes to fill.



Lina Alles

Director of Broadcast Buying

Ogilvy & Mather



This past fall was pretty tough for all the new shows. There aren’t any true hits, and there are a lot of mediocre performers.

Veronica’s Closet, which was billed as the hottest new show, is doing ok – better than any of the other fall shows, anyway – but it’s not garnering huge numbers. It can’t be considered a hit. Dharma & Greg is in the u.s. top 10, and does relatively well here on Global – but again, it’s not something you’d call a hit. Union Square is another one that’s doing well in the States, but that’s purely by virtue of having a good time period.

The other show I’ve been hearing a lot about is Ally McBeal. It’s got a cult following in the u.s., and is getting a lot of media coverage; people do seem to be talking about it. So we’ll see how it does in Canada, now that ctv has picked it up on Mondays (replacing Cybill and The Naked Truth). In the States, reportedly, the show is attracting everyone – from teens to the 50-plus audience, which is kind of surprising. It’s something to keep an eye on.

If there’s disappointment, I’d say it’s with some of the shows that brought back big names – The Tony Danza Show, George & Leo (starring Bob Newhart and Judd Hirsch), Dellaventura (with Danny Aiello), The Gregory Hines Show and so on. They should have done better. When you’ve got a show with proven star power, odds are it should hold its own.

Personally, I thought Dellaventura would have done well. It came right after The Last Don (a hugely popular cbs miniseries starring Aiello), and he’s well-liked. But people haven’t been tuning in.

Of course, things are usually tough for new shows. With a few exceptions, they tend to be put in the worst slots, which doesn’t help. Traditionally, only about 30% of them come back for a second year, and this fall’s crop won’t be any different.

Already, we’ve had a number of cancellations: Meego, The Tony Danza Show, Over The Top, Timecop, Sleepwalkers, C16:FBI, Total Security and 413 Hope St. (This last was actually a good show, but it was on Fox up against nbc’s Thursday night lineup, and the competition was just too much for it.)

The thing to remember about new shows is that it’s not so much how they’re doing right now, in their first season, that’s important. I heard a luncheon speaker from J. Walter Thompson in New York point this out recently: It’s how shows perform in their second season – if they manage to get renewed. Because a lot of the shows that are successful right now – Seinfeld, Beverly Hills 90210, The X-Files – took a while to get going. For a new fall entry to come out of the gate as a hit is rare.

As for the news about Seinfeld, mostly what people are saying is, ‘Is he crazy? Why didn’t he take the offer of $5 million per episode for one more season? Explain that one.’

Obviously, this is going to have a huge impact on nbc. Having the best Thursday night lineup is worth a lot of money to them. And Seinfeld has been the cornerstone of that lineup. What are they going to replace it with? (The last I’d heard, they were contemplating putting Mad About You in there.) This is the first time in some while that Thursday night could be up for grabs – and if I were abc or cbs, I’d be very excited by the challenge.

For Global here in Canada, the issue is the same. They’ve had the rights to Seinfeld for some time, and the investment has paid off well. Seinfeld helps all the other shows in the Thursday lineup – as long as it’s there, you maintain the No. 1 position, and can demand top dollar.

I’m sure both Baton/ctv and wic were pretty happy when they heard Seinfeld was going. That was a program they were pretty well shut out of bidding for anyway, because Global had a multi-year deal for it. Now, there’s an opportunity to establish a new Thursday night leader in Canada, so we could see a real bidding war for programming. Baton, in particular, has never made a secret of the fact that they want to be the No. 1 regional network. More competition will definitely make things more interesting.



Florence Ng

Vice-President, Director of Broadcast Services

Optimedia



The one show that has actually performed better than expected is Dharma & Greg. We looked at the lead-in to that show on Global, Mad About You, and estimated that the numbers for Dharma would be slightly lower. In fact, it seems to be performing even better than Mad About You, and skews better against a younger demographic. For a client targeting adults 18-34, Dharma & Greg is the better vehicle.

A show we expected to do much better is Veronica’s Closet. If you look at the numbers from the States, it has consistently been in the top five, in large part because of its position on nbc after Seinfeld. In this market, though, it’s delivering ratings lower than expected. That may have to do with the fact that it’s on ONtv (wic), and initially had The Tony Danza Show (now canceled) as its lead-in. The people who are watching Seinfeld on Global may just be sticking around for that rerun of Frasier afterward instead. Certainly if Veronica were on Global, you would expect to see it delivering better numbers.

The most noteworthy move so far has probably been Baton/ctv’s decision to put Ally McBeal on Mondays at 9 p.m. Obviously, they feel strongly about the potential of the show, because to do that they had to move Cybill, which has been a mainstay of their schedule for the past couple of years.

There have been quite a few schedule changes already this season. ctv has moved the dramas Nothing Sacred and Cracker from Thursday to Saturday. Those shows have had a tough time building an audience – but I really don’t expect this move to help an awful lot. We’ve taken a look at the shows that have been scheduled on Saturdays in the past couple of seasons, and frankly, almost none of them did well.

Baton has also pulled Gene Roddenberry’s Earth: Final Conflict, which had actually been doing quite well for them in the Friday 10 p.m. slot, and replaced it with a Canadian-made crime drama called Cold Squad. On the surface, that may not seem like a good move, but presumably the programming people there know what they’re doing.

This fall, in general, audiences seem to have diminished. Now, the broadcasters are saying it’s because of the introduction of the new specialty channels – that people are trying out all these services, and that has affected viewing of conventional stations.

Is that the reason? We don’t know. It could be true. But it could also be that the majority of the new shows just aren’t that great, and aren’t attracting viewers.

One thing that people have certainly been talking about is Seinfeld. The big question right now is: What will nbc put in its place? When Cheers entered its final season, Seinfeld was ready to move right into that slot, so it wasn’t a major problem. This time around, it could be difficult.

It has to be a proven show, because Thursday night is very important to nbc. You could move Frasier in there, but Frasier is never going to deliver the same mass number as Seinfeld, because it’s a more sophisticated show.

Moving Friends to 9 p.m. Thursday is also a possibility. Friends is mass all right. But it’s not as balanced in terms of delivering all demographics. It’s good for the younger demos, but if I’m looking for a vehicle that gives me the full 25-54, it’s not as strong. The good thing about Seinfeld is that it really does cover that whole range.

How about 3rd Rock from the Sun? Personally, I don’t think it’s strong enough to take that time period. On the other hand, that show has been moved around the schedule so much that maybe it just hasn’t had the chance to develop its true potential audience.

There’s a real possibility here that Global could lose ground. With Friends and Seinfeld on Thursday, it doesn’t matter if the shows in between are mediocre – they still have a strong lineup. If Seinfeld’s gone and Global’s replacement is not as strong, then their competition will have a chance to make some gains – provided they’ve got the right programming.



Ruta Zibens

Broadcast Supervisor

Leo Burnett



I would have to say that it’s been an almost hitless new season. The list of failures is quite long.

It’s really just the luck of the draw. Some years are like this, and it’s tough to predict. There have been a few good shows this year that ought to be doing well. Maybe it’s just a question of time period, of scheduling. If they’re given a chance at a second season, maybe they’ll succeed.

Probably the biggest surprise in Canada has been the performance of Veronica’s Closet, being beaten week after week by a Frasier rerun. It seems that in Ontario, at least, viewers are staying tuned to Global after Seinfeld – they’re not making the switch to ONtv. I guess it’s just the power of the flow. Because in another time period Veronica’s Closet would certainly do well.

At the time of the fall launch, we all thought that putting the Frasier rerun on after Seinfeld was like raising a white flag. But now it’s looking like a smart move on Global’s part. They continue to dominate Thursday – although come the fall, that’s going to change with the loss of Seinfeld. Thursday night is going to be up for grabs. Baton/ctv, wic, Global – whoever has the biggest pot of money to bid on shows could take it.

For nbc, it’s a huge loss. They’ve held that precarious hold at the top of the ratings heap for some time, just by virtue of having Seinfeld, and I’m sure they’re praying for another show to break out soon. Actually, I think all the networks are hoping for that, to help stave off competition from cable.

And something always has broken out in the past. Maybe it’ll take a year or two, but I can’t believe there won’t be a show to replace Seinfeld.

One of the nicer surprises this season has been Ally McBeal. With its recent win at the Golden Globe Awards, it’s starting to look like a show with the potential to be the next big mega-hit for the 18-49 demo. That could be the program that’s really bid on next season. Initially, the feeling was that the show might be too quirky for people to accept. But the lead (Calista Flockhart) is very appealing, and I think it’s going to be around for a while.

Another show that really came out of nowhere is The Practice (abc/Global). It was doing a six rating across many demos on Saturday night, and that’s a lower viewing time block. What the u.s. network has done now is move it to Monday, and really gotten behind it with on-air promotion. I think that’s a signal that it’s here to stay.

I was also a bit surprised by the poor showing of George & Leo. It has two veteran co-stars, and the pilot wasn’t bad. But the writing has declined in subsequent weeks, and so have the ratings. That was something I might have predicted would do well, especially with older demos, and instead it has just died.

In general, the u.s. networks seem to have been slower than usual to revamp their schedules this season. They seem to have been trying to give shows every opportunity to succeed. A lot of popular shows aren’t breakout hits in their first season – Seinfeld, for one, was a bomb. Sometimes they have to be moved around and finessed until they reach their true potential.



Pierre Delagrave

Executive Vice-President, Media and Research

Cossette Media, Quebec



Overall, most of the new programs from the Quebec broadcasters have done less well than planned – although, to be fair, it hasn’t been like last year. The new series presented in the fall of 1996 were not at all successful, to the point that a lot of sponsors were questioning their investment. If this fall’s shows didn’t deliver audience numbers quite as high as planned, at least we didn’t see the big discrepancies we did the year before.

Back in June, I wrote that tva was making very aggressive moves, looking to take audience from Radio-Canada. And it seems to me that they have, in fact, very successfully gone about doing so.

Originally, the two networks had their biggest series – Omerta 2 for Radio-Canada, Paparazzi for tva – scheduled opposite one another on Tuesday night. Then Radio-Canada agreed to move Omerta to Monday. Reportedly, the deal was that Paparazzi would stay on Tuesday. In fact, tva moved the show to Thursday, to block the new Radio-Canada teleroman, Sous le signe du Lion.

For a long time now, Radio-Canada’s strategy has been to protect prime time, leaving tva to dominate other parts of the day. Now, tva is becoming a strong player in prime time as well. Radio-Canada is still doing well – three of the five top prime-time shows in the province are theirs. But they are finding it more difficult to compete.

tva has been very successful in the morning for some time now, with Salut Bonjour. That reflects one of the characteristics of Quebec television: Over time, people here have developed the habit of watching television when they have their breakfast. Our research has shown that 30% of people in Montreal watch tv before going to work. There’s nothing comparable in other provinces: Where a morning show in English Canada will get maybe a two share, Salut Bonjour gets an eight.

So tva owns the morning. (The natural audience for Radio-Canada, they’re not the ones watching tv in the morning – they’re reading the paper or listening to the radio.) And now tva dominates at the end of the day as well, with Poing J (a talk show hosted by the wildly popular Julie Snyder), which has been even more successful than expected. This means that people are getting up in the morning with tva, and going to bed with it as well. It has become almost the natural habit in Quebec to watch tva, and to select Radio-Canada only for specific programs.

It also seems that the natural audience of Radio-Canada is more attracted to specialty tv than is the tva audience. So while tva has been gaining somewhat from the weakness of rival private network Television Quatre Saisons (tqs), Radio-Canada has been losing to specialty channels. Their audience base has become quite fragile.

Radio-Canada is clearly trying to find a formula to win back the audience. But that audience is one that tends to cherry-pick programs, which makes it difficult. And Radio-Canada tends to be a bit nervous about its scheduling. They play around with time slots a bit too much, which doesn’t help to build the viewing habit.

A large part of the success of tva has been giving people what they want. Radio-Canada, because of the mandate handed to it by government, tends to give people what’s good for them. But what’s good for you isn’t necessarily what you want to watch.



Also in this report:

* Prime-time landscape littered with casualties: Of the myriad series that debuted this fall, only a few can be considered genuine hits p.B3

* New specialties look to future p.B17