In contrast to the U.S., where the demo is ballooning, Canada’s zero-to-16 age segment is shrinking. To sustain sales increases, youth-skewing brands such as Doritos, PlayStation and Xbox are aiming for an older 23-year-old ‘sweet spot.’ Since switching to this strategy, Doritos, for one, saw its base nacho business increase by a remarkable 24%, an accomplishment helped by ‘adolescent expansion,’ a related phenomenon which is seeing teenage attitudes and behaviour persist in males up to the age of 27.

Everyone wants to be cool with kids, and it’s no wonder: research indicates that youngsters influence $20 billion in household purchases. But while it sounds like heresy in today’s youth-obsessed culture, you may not want to zero in too precisely on those between the ages of zero to 16. That’s because the youth demo is shrinking in Canada, and some marketers – even previously teen-obsessed ones like Doritos and PlayStation – are finding they have to aim a bit higher or risk a flat future. Luckily, the strategy of spanning teen and young adult age demos is working better than ever before, thanks to a new phenomenon called ‘adolescent expansion.’

According to the latest census, the pre-school population, aged zero to four, declined 11%, from 1.9 million in 1991 to 1.7 million in 2001, and while the numbers in the five-to-12 range actually rose 6% during that time, that demo too is expected to drop 14% over the next decade. The 13-to-24 age group, meanwhile, expanded slightly from 4.6 million to 4.8 million between 1991 and 2001 and is expected to increase a bit more going forward.

These population shifts are unique to Canada and demand a different approach from that taken in the U.S., where the 10-to-14 age cell ballooned by 20% between 1990 and 2000, and the five-to-9 and 15-to-19 segments each grew by 13%.

It’s a trend that hasn’t gone unnoticed by Canadian marketers, as even the Cokes and McDonald’s of the world are showing concern. Says Pina Sciarra, VP consumer marketing at Toronto-based Coca-Cola Canada: ‘In the U.S., they have an eco-boom, so there’s an increase in younger kids zero to 16, whereas here that group is actually in decline. What you do see [in Canada] is a much more dramatic increase in the older segment, so that has implications.’

Look for Coke to ‘be much more focused on lifestages’ going forward, to ‘be much more aware of health and wellness trends,’ and to ‘be more innovative to meet consumer needs, from kids to adults.’

Meanwhile, a recent Canadian product introduction at McDonald’s, the Steak & Cheese Flatbread Pita, addresses the phenomenon by skewing a tad older, at young adult males, a group with which the fast-food giant had lost share of occasion to the likes of Pizza Pizza and Subway. As a result, the Canadian ‘I’m lovin’ it’ ad, which promotes the new sandwich, depicts frosh week antics. (For more on McD’s strategy, see ‘Beating Brand Fatigue,’ Strategy, Nov. 17, page 1.)

Other firms, which have made a definitive move in this direction, are already reaping measurable benefits.

Mississauga, Ont.-based Frito-Lay Canada is one example. By 1999, its Doritos brand, which had always focused squarely on teens, reached $122 million in sales, with an 83% dollar share of the Canadian flavoured tortilla chip market. But the business hit a brick wall and previously double-digit growth flattened out, according to Tony Matta, Frito-Lay’s senior marketing manager on the Doritos brand. This was obvious cause for concern and the company checked in with its teen fans to see if it had fallen out of favour. It hadn’t.

‘So the next question was: What’s happening to those demographic numbers?’ says Matta. ‘If you contrasted Mexico versus the U.S., and Canada, that would show you the continuum of change. In Mexico they have a thriving teen population that’s expected to grow dramatically; in the U.S. the teen population will grow 2% between 2001 and 2111; and in Canada, during the same time, it will shrink by 3%.’ This distinction between population trends north and south of the border is likely impacted by the large Hispanic immigrant population in the States, as the ethnic group tends to consist of larger families.

Compounding the problem was the fact that Doritos was ignoring those teens and former customers who had graduated to young adulthood. Its advertising, which was based on the tagline ‘the loudest taste on earth’ and depicted teen boys harassing librarians with the earth-shattering crunch of Doritos, wasn’t resonating with the older group.

Says Dale Hooper, VP brand marketing at Frito-Lay Canada: ‘We had a vision of Doritos as a bit James Dean, a bit rebel. As we talked to people, we realized that’s not what Doritos is all about, it’s more of a social brand.’

This became clear when Frito-Lay set out to find common characteristics between teens and young adults, specifically around how they view Doritos and their own lives. What came back were the brand attributes ‘pioneer, unique, social, fun, and youthful in spirit.’

With the help of its Toronto ad agency BBDO, Doritos debuted a new campaign last year, based on the tagline ‘bold taste you can play with.’

While tactical methods, like flavour introductions and promotions, the latter handled by Toronto-based Capital C, are still geared at specific age groups, the key was to strike a chord with both segments in creative executions. Doritos aimed for a ‘sweet spot’ age of 21 to 23, according to Matta.

This was considered an aspirational age for both targets – the 29-year-old who remembers his university days with fondness, and the 16-year-old who can’t wait to move out on his own.

Matta calls this phenomenon ‘adolescent expansion,’ which is based on the notion that today’s consumer takes more time to grow up. In other words, today’s typical 27-year-old lives downtown, without wife and kids, whereas his counterpart 20 years ago lived in a house with a white picket fence, two kids and a dog, in the ‘burbs, no less.

But did the shift work for Doritos? The results tell the story: as of the end of October, Doritos’ dollar share had increased to 88.4%, while sales of its base nachos brand, including its baked division, shot up by 24%. And while previously the flavoured tortilla chip category was relatively flat, Frito-Lay helped increase tonnage by 13% overall.

The video game console makers are also taking advantage of adolescent expansion by sticking with their core customers as they grow up.

Rob Segal, president of Toronto-based Segal Communications, which handles all promotional activity in Canada for Sony’s PS2, says that the brand is now pursuing an older crowd than it was five years ago. In fact, over 50% of PlayStation’s audience is in the 18-to-34 age group and 21% are over 35 – while only 20% are between 12 and 18 years old.

Similar to Doritos, PlayStation, which nabs a share of between 55% and 60% of the Canadian market during any given week, aims its advertising at the 23-year-old male. ‘Our creative is universal in its appeal – most of the ads are universally funny,’ says Segal. To that end, Segal recently completed a humorous cinema spot for PS2, in conjunction with retail partner Wal-Mart Canada that stars a video-game addicted Santa.

Meanwhile PlayStation’s brand advertising, mostly created in the U.S. by Santa Monica, Calif.-based TBWAChiatDay, is broadcast heavily on specialty networks, like TSN and Much Music, skewed to the 18-to-34 set.

Likewise, for Toronto-based Xbox Canada, targeting an adult consumer makes complete sense. Says communications architect Tracy Chong: ‘We have a fairly extensive target group, from 12 to 34, and within that we have subgroups we prioritize – the older target is where we put our biggest emphasis. They’ve had a longstanding love affair with video games, and it’s become a big part of their source of entertainment.’

And recently, with the older end of the spectrum moving into parenthood, Xbox has tried to address their new needs via ‘multiple functionality.’ For instance, the Xbox can now play DVDs and upload up to 1,000 CD tracks. In late October, the firm also launched ‘Music Mixer,’ which can be added to an existing Xbox system. It has a karaoke function as well as the potential to create a musical slide show – something ‘the whole family can enjoy,’ including moms.

Like the others, Xbox’s bullseye is around the age of 24, with efforts designed to reach both younger and older customers. Adds Chong: ‘There’s less of a generational gap because there is more homogenous media consumption. If you look at the older generation of this group, they’ve grown up on videos, and their taste in music is more diverse than we’ve ever seen before.’

TV spots from McCann Erickson in New York run during selective programming, such as Showcase’s trashy comedy Trailer Park Boys. ‘The way we’re purchasing media is also different – it’s more appointment-based to reach the target,’ explains Chong, adding that the ’19-to-34 group goes to the movies three or four times a month, so cinema has become more important to the category as well.’

Meanwhile Xbox also schedules regular in-store events at participating retailers like Zellers, Future Shop, Best Buy and Electronic Boutique, such as a karaoke contest featuring Music Mixer over the holiday period. Generally, such promotions garner at least a two-to-one lift in sales, says Chong.

While skewing older in these cases is a smart move, Ken Wong, a professor of marketing at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., warns that the strategy might not be suitable for every youth brand, particularly those which have alienated older age groups in the past.

‘Frankly, with the way a lot of the sugared breakfast cereals go after the youth consumer, which is portraying everyone over 30 as an idiot or from the dark side, it’s going to be a hard stretch to position that brand to be effective to 17- to 30-year-olds.’

And that presents a quandary: if you can’t skew up, how can you grow when your core demographic group is vanishing?