A few weeks does not a season make, but with early numbers trickling in, buyers have begun to prognosticate on the fate of new shows and the early winners of the ratings race.

While none predict the new arrivals to break into what is already a strong Top 10 list anytime soon, they do provide an indicator of network direction and the strength of promotional efforts.

Coming off a summer in which debuts like Canadian Idol attracted two million-plus viewers, it’s not surprising CTV has been able to ride its weighty ratings into the first few weeks of the fall sked, taking the majority of the Top 20 ratings and looking comfortably in the lead as the season rounds the first turn.

But with many of the Global hits waiting for the baseball season to end and the Fox season to start, and with U.S. networks becoming increasingly axe-happy when it comes to new shows (anyone remember David E. Kelley’s Girls Club?), the race is really only getting started.

Add the CBC bowing out of fall madness in favour of a year-long roll-out, and the arrival of Toronto 1, and this fall is a whole new ball game.

CTV: I’m With Her surprises

Although Whoopi cracked the Top 20 during the first few weeks of fall, buyers unanimously predict an early appointment with the trash heap. CTV has enough new programming left over, however, that it’s not likely to matter. Leading the charge are buyer favourites Cold Case (over a million viewers out of the gate), Joan of Arcadia and Nip/Tuck.

I’m With Her was certainly a surprise for CTV, achieving the net’s highest marks for a debut in its first week. It pulled in almost 800,000 viewers (adults 18 to 49, according to BBM) in a Tuesday slot that followed 8 Simple Rules, but what will become of that spot with the untimely death of Rules lead John Ritter will have to be determined.

CTV’s early successes aren’t just good luck – continuity was key. The net promoted its summer sked during last year’s season finales and then began to promo the fall in mid-June during its summer hits. In early September, CTV went strong into radio and print, although on-air continues to be its prime mover.

While programming 12 months a year to keep momentum seems a no-brainer, CTV SVP of program planning and promotion Rick Lewchuk says it’s not a slam dunk.

‘The real caveat is whether advertisers will continue to support it. We may need to create more of a scatter market in this country. I think there were a lot of advertisers looking at Canadian Idol and wishing they could be in it, but because the way budgets are often set, the money wasn’t there to do it.’

Global: Two and a Half takes the lead

Global/CH came out of the gate with Two and a Half Men leading a pack of new shows. It scored a seven rating and achieved about 850,000 viewers for its debut.

Interestingly, early favourite Coupling didn’t fare quite as well, racking up about 300,000 fewer spectators despite the strength of its placement in Global’s über-Thursday lineup after Will & Grace. Still, it garnered a healthy 6.5 rating against adults 18 to 49, earning the number-two slot among new shows for the first two weeks of the new season.

Buyers give the early thumbs-down to Miss Match (despite its Friday night 4+ ratings), Tru Calling and David E. Kelley’s Brotherhood of Poland.

They have high hopes for Karen Sisco (notwithstanding her dubious placement against Law & Order), Navy CIS and Las Vegas, although M2 Universal’s VP director of broadcast buying, Dennis Dinga, says he’s not convinced about the latter’s future: ‘Even though I like the show, I think they might run out of stories. There’s only so much you can say about how to cheat the system.’

Global/CH has tried to achieve a strong presence for its nightly cornerstone shows through on-air, cross-platform and cross-media promotions such as print, transit, radio and even through its board on Toronto’s busy Gardiner Expressway. Off-air promotions will continue to centre on tried-and-true performers, using their strength to fuel on-air promotions for newcomers.

Kathy Gardner, CanWest Media Sales VP of integrated media research, is cautious about the early numbers.

‘We launched 29 of our shows before Sept. 9, which is a lot of programming on air at the same time. Obviously viewers are still in sampling mode.’ Gardner prefers to see four to eight weeks of data in order to spot trends as audiences settle out, especially given that Fox properties like The Simpsons, That ’70s Show, and Malcolm in the Middle don’t premier until later this month.

CHUM: Patience, please

City and the NewNets have high hopes for WB pickups Everwood and Seventh Heaven, and Jake 2.0 appears to be outperforming U.S. numbers – a dubious honour given the U.S. nets’ penchant for cancellation.

But Ellen Baine, CHUM’s VP of programming, believes networks need to be more patient with their properties: ‘The audience’s focus goes in so many directions now that you have to give them a little more time to find a show and get used to it.’ (The first season of Seinfeld being the best argument for that.)

While some CHUM properties like The Bachelor need little support thanks to the publicity they naturally generate, the net is doing more to promote its newcomers than it traditionally has, especially on the NewNets side.

Expect to see more on-air cross-platform promotions and perhaps even more innovations off-air. Pedestrians walking past the City mother ship on Toronto’s Queen Street last week, for example, saw a larger-than-life Everwood and Seventh Heaven promo instead of the traditional banner promoting CHUM broadcast properties.

Toronto 1: A ‘pretty good’ debut

After a month of trying to get some of the spotlight her big brothers were hogging, the new kid in town premiered with the low single-digit ratings that would be predicted early in a launch. T1 VP and GM Barbara Williams says the early numbers are where she expected them to be and that the outlet has been getting a favourable reaction from buyers.

‘I think the ad community has been exactly what you would expect them to be,’ says Williams. ‘They buy numbers, but they also buy environment and they understand the uniqueness of the environment we’re providing. The attitude from buyers has been one of openness to what we’re doing, one of willingness to work with us at the initial stages. And then [we’ll be] like any other advertiser and every other broadcaster. We need to deliver what they need and when we do they will be with us in even bigger and better ways.’

Florence George, VP and group media director at PHD Canada, observes that T1 achieved ‘about 50% of what they estimated for the whole fall [in the first week], so I thought that was pretty good. There is a bit of weakness on their shows now, like their morning show, but generally speaking they did quite well for one week out…. It’s not big numbers at all, but the first week looks better than when Omni 2 launched.’

George believes NFL football, Sharon Osbourne and The Ellen DeGeneres Show (providing it doesn’t die an early death at the hands of middle America) should perform well, but that an important part of the broadcaster’s chemistry must be realized in a solid movie package and a morning show that performs.

‘I think there is a spot for Toronto 1,’ notes George, ‘and I think they have done fairly well in generating interest from retailers, etc. It’s another option, and I like to have options.’

Source: Nielsen Media Research